McMahon – Australia 2025

Is Frankie C finally going to run?
Would expect this seat to have a similar fate to Fowler if he does.
Bowen has been one of the government’s worst performers whilst Carbone has been one of Sydney’s most popular Mayors

Carbone should easily beat Bowen if he runs

Only a relatively small part of McMahon is in Fairfield LGA. You reckon Carbone will be able to appeal to the rest of the electorate?

Labor would definitely be hoping that Carbone doesn’t run. They have enough seats to worry about as is.

This is a real mess of a seat with 5 distinct sections. Are there many commonalities between St Clair, Blacktown, Greystanes and Fairfield, or is the division likely to swing based on local issues and vibes?

Fairfield now only makes up approximately 25% of the division. That’s also Bowen’s strongest section. If Carbone could win Fairfield, would he also be able to achieve enough cut-through in the remainder, particularly Labor’s weaker sections in Cumberland and Penrith Councils?

if carbone runs he’ll likely garner most of the preferences from all the other parties and cobine that with whatever first preferences he can get and strip from Bowen he would easily win. i reckon 55-45 of the 2cp

I think Carbone would win quite comfortably due to a number of factors:
a) Can harness the popularity of a like-minded independent in a neighbouring seat (Dai Le) similarly to the way the Teals did in Northern Sydney and Melbourne. Consolidating through geography and demos- as part of a broader movement;
b) If the field is crowded enough, due to compulsory preferential voting, Carbone like Dai Le could triangulate all preferences against Bowen and easily get across the line; and
c) Despite Fairfield Council not entirely overlapping the electorate of McMahon, the largest and most densely populated parts do overlap, namely: Horsley Park, Fairfield- Heights/West, Wetherill Park, Bossley Park, Abbotsbury, Prairiewood, Cecil Park, Smithfield, Yennora and Old Guilford

I cant see any of rhe other parties preferencong Bowen over Carbone

@Darth Vader the Greens will.

Angas,

McMahon definitely seems to be becoming an “All the random bits and pieces that don’t fit in the Liverpool, Parramatta, Blacktown, and Mount Druitt based seats” Division.

Bowen might hold it simply because it’s harder for any one local independent to appeal across all the different areas.

@NP the grn vote is relatively weak in this seat though not even 6% and last time only 66% of that vote wen to labor on 2nd preference if you add in a INd like carbone im sure that would drop even further.

@mark McMahon is slowly becomng the 3rd blacktown division as blacktown grows. this will keep pushing mcmahon north into blacktown and out of fairfield. this will make it a safer seat on 2pp but will ultimately likely help the liberals win parramatta and greenway

As a comparison, Greens only got 5% in neighbouring Fowler, which largely all went to Labor and was not enough to sandbag the seat against an independent.
Contrary to Mark’s above point Carbone had an even larger profile than Dai 3 years ago, at least in the area. This has only grown as a consequence of a dominating Local Government election performance.
His profile also grew during the COVID lockdowns which detrimentally impacted Western Sydney and has been vocal against migration increases due to overcrowding and lack of infrastructure/housing development.
Not an ordinary independent by any means and also considered not particularly partisan. Good media performer and has been Mayor of a large Western Sydney council for over a decade.

@fatty labor only received 52% of the greens second preference.

@john I tried to follow the maths on this for both Fowler and McMahon and due to the uptick from 1st pref to 2PP, I can’t square what you’re saying.
In McMahon, Bowen got 48% and ended up with 59.5%, which is an 11.5% differential. The Greens received 5.8%, so that would most of this is likely been absorbed into the 11.5%. Especially considering the other parties were UAP, One Nation and LDP.
In Fowler, Keneally got 36.1% of 1st pref and 48.4% of 2PP. A 12.3% differential. Greens polled 4.9% 1st Pref, and that would easily been all absorbed into the 12.3%.
As with McMahon the other parties were UAP, One Nation and LDP.
I can’t see anything less than 90% of Greens 2nd preferences going to anything other than Labor.
To clarify 2nd preferences meaning Labor over Lib or Independent in 2PP.
But I may have read this wrong…

@fatty your forgetting that Carbone will eat into Bowen and labor primary vote. once he starts eating into that bowens chances drmatically reduce. the left and right vote was about 54-46 so obviously some of the right vote split to bowen instead of the libs. Carbone would attract almost all of that if he were to run and he should get close enough to topple Bowen. plus if you add in the muslim vote that will likely be striiped by a muslim a back candidate then you add in the CoL crisis plus people who were added from neighbouring Fowler who now have a s taste for an Ind candidate it is entirely plausible Bowen can lose. but expect labor to throw resources here

I think Carbone would have a really good chance of winning this seat if he decides to run. Due to a few reasons

1. Bowen is really unpopular due to him being Minister for Energy that his policies of clean energy isn’t popular within the electorate as they more care more about paying less on their power bills.

2. The COL crisis and Morgage Stress is a heavy within the electorate which would be a problem for Labor especially when it got worse since they won the last election.

3. Labor’s strongest part of the electorate is mostly within Fairfield Council which Carbone has proven to get a huge percentage of votes there. The neighbouring councils of Cumberland, Blacktown and Penrith doesn’t vote strongly for Labor and the Liberal polling booths would help Carbone too.

@micheal agreed carbone is likely the best chance of unseating bowen and i hope he runs and wins

Matthew Camenzuli is also running as an independent here so i think Bowens vote is gonna get hammered enough if Carbone runs.

if you tally it up the right v left vote here is about 54-46 there was obviously leakage from the right to bowen to get him to basically 60-40. carbone could harness enough of the left vote and with strong preferences could easily beat bowen

mcmahon will become the 3rd blacktown seat and fowler will become likely solely focused on fairfield

Cabone will not run. If anything he would help Dai Le

Of the minors only Greens are left of centre.Bowen got a fair whack of right wing preferences, more than I would expect. He also got a 3% 2pp swing to him.
Why? More popular than people guess?

@mick he has not yet announced his intentions but he has spoken publicly against chris bowen. his swing was minor compared to the avegerage swing in nsw and certainly wasnt because he is popular it was in line with the anti morrison/liberal across nsw and australia. expect it to swing back to around 6% 2pp this election carbone would absolutely steamroll bowen if he were to run

Bowen is a genuine local and long term incumbent who likely has a reasonably large personal vote. I also remember the Palestine campaigns actually largely leaving Bowen (and Music) alone compared to other MPs in target seats.

I think Bowen is safe and its Clare and Burke that should be more worried about their once ultra safe seats.

@blue bowen threat isnt from te muslim votes group but from Carbone and Les Network and if Carbone runs he will win. if he doesnt run he will likely have someone from his network run as they have vowed to contest western sydney seats and that is where the threat is especially since they will be able to harness votes from the centre right parties preferences and may be able to steal enough votes to topple Bowen. the last election saw the left/right split at 54-46 so all they need to do is harness the right vote and steal only a handful of votes from the left in order to topple bowen. Clare is more under threat then Burke. The candidatae in Watson has had controversial views regarding palestine and would not be receiving liberal preferences which is the ony way he can theoretically win. The candidate in Blaxland hasnt yet had any repotrted controversy and could harness the liberal preferences need to beat Jason Clare.